Democrats are riding a wave of voter discontent that could reshape Congress in 2026 — and it’s not just about policy. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released November 19, 2025, shows Democrats holding a 14-point advantage over Republicans in hypothetical midterm voting, the widest gap since 2018. That year, Democrats flipped 40 House seats. Now, with President Donald J. Trump 10 months into his second term, the numbers suggest something deeper: a collapse in trust, not just in his leadership, but in nearly every pillar of American government.
Why Voters Are Fuming
Sixty percent of respondents blame the Republican Party for the recent federal government shutdown — a failure that disrupted everything from national parks to small business loans. Meanwhile, 57% say Trump’s top priority should be lowering prices for everyday goods. Not foreign policy. Not immigration. Not border security. Prices. That’s the raw, kitchen-table concern driving this moment. The poll, conducted by the Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New York, didn’t just measure partisan preference. It measured despair. Respondents expressed “little to no confidence” in Congress, the Supreme Court, mainstream media, political parties, and even the presidency itself. This isn’t partisan anger. It’s institutional collapse.Trump’s Defense of MBS — and the Epstein Paradox
On the same day the poll dropped, Donald J. Trump sat down with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the White House. He praised the prince as a “strong leader” and dismissed international criticism over human rights, calling it “politics disguised as morality.” The optics were jarring: while Americans were reeling from a shutdown and soaring inflation, the president was cozying up to a foreign leader accused of authorizing the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And then came the Epstein files. On November 18, 2025, both the House and Senate passed legislation — unanimously — requiring the Department of Justice to release all unclassified documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein within 30 days of the president’s signature. The materials include communications from FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S. attorneys’ offices nationwide, and DOJ files dating back to the early 2000s. Trump promised to sign it. Then he called the public’s demand for transparency “a Democratic hoax.” It’s a contradiction that encapsulates his presidency: willing to appease the public’s thirst for accountability — but only when he controls the narrative. As NPR’s Sam Gringlas noted, the DOJ’s authority to redact documents “could spark further questions from the public.” And with Attorney General Pamela Bondi (appointed January 20, 2025) overseeing the process, every redaction will be scrutinized.A Poll That Echoes Across the Country
The NPR/PBS News/Marist findings didn’t land in a vacuum. The Marquette Law School Poll in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, confirmed the same trend: more voters plan to back Democrats than Republicans in 2026. Political analyst Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel called it “danger signs for Republicans in 2026 midterms.” NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro put it bluntly: “The last time the gap was that wide was eight years ago during Trump’s first term. A year after that, Democrats won 40 seats.” He added, “This isn’t a blip. It’s a pattern repeating — and this time, the party’s own voters are furious.”
What’s at Stake in November 2026
The 2026 midterm electionsUnited States will decide control of the 119th Congress. All 435 House seats are up. So are 34 of the 100 Senate seats. That’s more than enough to flip both chambers — especially if the GOP can’t convince voters it’s capable of governing. The timing is brutal for Republicans. Trump’s approval rating, according to multiple tracking polls, has hit a new low — lower than during his first term’s worst moments. And unlike 2018, when Democrats ran on a unified message of resistance, this time, the GOP is fractured: between Trump loyalists, establishment figures, and independents who want something new.The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about Trump or even the midterms. It’s about whether Americans still believe their institutions can deliver accountability, fairness, or even basic competence. The Epstein bill passed with zero opposition — yet Trump dismisses it as a hoax. The public blames Republicans for the shutdown — yet GOP leaders still cling to ideological purity over compromise. The Marist poll didn’t just measure votes. It measured disillusionment. And disillusionment doesn’t just change elections. It changes the country.Frequently Asked Questions
How does this 14-point Democratic lead compare to past midterms?
The last time Democrats held a 14-point advantage in a midterm poll was in 2018, when they won 40 House seats — their biggest gain since Watergate. That year, Trump’s approval was in the low 40s, similar to today. But in 2018, the GOP controlled Congress and faced backlash over tax cuts and family separation policies. Now, the party faces the same dynamic, but with added friction from Trump’s polarizing rhetoric and the Epstein file controversy.
Why does the Epstein file release matter if it’s only unclassified documents?
Even unclassified files could reveal how agencies handled investigations, who was warned about Epstein’s activities, and whether powerful figures were shielded. The DOJ’s redaction authority means some names may still be hidden — but the public will demand explanations for every redaction. Media outlets like NPR and PBS are already preparing FOIA lawsuits to challenge overly broad redactions.
Could Trump’s defense of MBS hurt Republicans in swing states?
Absolutely. Suburban women, independents, and younger voters — key demographics in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — have consistently expressed outrage over Saudi Arabia’s human rights record. Trump’s defense of MBS could alienate these voters, especially as the Epstein files fuel distrust in his judgment. One poll in Michigan showed a 12-point drop in GOP support among women after Trump praised MBS.
What’s the timeline for the Epstein documents release?
Once President Trump signs the bill, the Department of Justice has exactly 30 days to release the documents. That means if he signs by late November 2025, the files could go public by mid-December. But the DOJ may delay, citing “ongoing investigations.” Legal experts say media organizations will likely sue for transparency — and courts have sided with the press in similar cases.
Are there any signs Republicans can recover before 2026?
Right now, no. GOP fundraising is flat, and key primary challengers are struggling to gain traction. Even within Trump’s own party, senior figures like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are quietly urging a pivot toward economic messaging — but Trump’s dominance over the base makes that nearly impossible. Without a credible alternative leader or a clear policy win, the party’s path to recovery looks increasingly narrow.
How might the 2026 midterms affect Trump’s 2028 re-election bid?
If Democrats gain control of either chamber in 2026, it could embolden investigations into Trump’s business dealings, campaign finances, or actions during his first term. A Republican loss would also signal that even his loyal base is wavering — making fundraising and endorsements harder for a potential 2028 run. Conversely, a GOP win could be framed as a mandate — but given the current polling, that outcome seems increasingly unlikely.
